Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 17.221553 19.769071 22.745563 26.527294 31.273897 37.132209 45.070160
2025-03-02 13.952500 16.997618 20.888630 26.373349 34.167745 45.304208 63.388244
2025-03-09 12.265357 15.532546 19.964508 26.684746 37.161881 53.996404 86.069411
2025-03-16 10.739160 13.956276 18.501183 25.755856 37.863189 59.177861 105.649322
2025-03-23 9.800236 13.032098 17.767789 25.694902 39.817450 67.077230 135.907479
2025-03-30 8.795354 11.877423 16.506892 24.515746 39.465511 70.372856 158.157409
2025-04-06 7.919221 10.818969 15.257167 23.132566 38.383914 71.728824 176.579889
2025-04-13 7.243340 10.000519 14.293711 22.093463 37.733111 73.842314 199.934083
2025-04-20 7.351800 10.397864 15.332997 24.811758 45.499302 100.428446 359.229970
2025-04-27 7.124387 10.233535 15.402679 25.706300 49.555375 119.775713 547.777482
2025-05-04 6.627742 9.587536 14.566991 24.665442 48.703147 123.204520 646.747329
2025-05-11 6.440352 9.439123 14.596878 25.404395 52.560599 145.889132 1053.002524
2025-05-18 6.125460 9.068872 14.219313 25.294314 54.373563 163.538910 1638.990041
2025-05-25 5.833141 8.716988 13.844425 25.141473 56.085685 183.073721 2750.183283
2025-06-01 5.622133 8.489222 13.678770 25.432798 59.252525 214.048403 6171.730930
2025-06-08 5.301714 8.046131 13.057500 24.564985 58.512447 223.155181 10167.479155
2025-06-15 5.096212 7.794813 12.789836 24.508011 60.472664 252.393520 33916.009801
2025-06-22 4.800313 7.363264 12.130961 23.405060 58.526279 253.064993 63960.140299
2025-06-29 4.506121 6.921015 11.423539 22.109376 55.627155 244.544876 89571.259811
2025-07-06 4.263568 6.562340 10.864251 21.134617 53.712853 242.707929 196661.174241
2025-07-13 4.371611 6.851062 11.640892 23.682080 65.928487 390.476316 NaN
2025-07-20 4.312401 6.823416 11.757707 24.518665 71.950163 508.951810 NaN
2025-07-27 4.108260 6.510609 11.244606 23.545163 69.712346 509.083173 NaN